Higher Post: A Tale of Two Schedules
...and how to make March picks by reviewing non-conference schedules.
Congregation, please stand up….
…because in conference play, the cream rises to the top!
There has been a lot of talk recently about strength of schedule. It was interesting because sometimes there is not enough talking about it.
As we head into conference play, there will be a lot of excitement about teams who are rolling, but when you dig deeper, how padded is that resume?
This is one of the most interesting things in college basketball. Since the first half of the season is the non-conference schedule, it gives coaches a chance to build their programs up before against opponents they are not familiar with before heading down the usual and familiar slate of usual conference foes.
Two Philosophies for Scheduling:
There are two major scheduling philosophies that coaches employ. Both have their own set of pros and cons.
Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime: This is the John Calipari at UMass approach where a team loads a schedule with as many strong opponents as possible to run through the ringer before settling into conference play.
This helps more with either teams in non-power conferences or when you are making a legitimate championship run and need as many tests as possible. There are usually a few cupcakes peppered in between so the team can get a bit of a rest throughout.
The risks with this approach are:
Wearing your team out (peaking early)
You lose a few games that actually hurt team confidence going into conference play.
You lose too many games ultimately keeping your dancing shoes in your locker.
Two: Dessert before Dinner: This approach schedules a sweet round of cupcakes as the appetizer before heading to the dinner table for the main course.
This approach is designed to take some of the pressure off a team early in the season. New and young teammates can have time to gel without too much pressure. Meanwhile, coaches have low-risk opportunities to experiment with lineups, matchups, offense plays and defensive formations. It can also build confidence in a squad as they enter conference play with only 1-2 losses at most.
The risks here are big:
Tough unexpected losses: If you lose a couple of bad games, it could kill your March hopes early. Example is this season’s Pittsburgh women’s team who scheduled D3 Scranton as the 4th game of the season only to lose that game at home. To be fair, the Lady Royals are ranked #2 in D3, but if you are a D1 team from a power conference, you need to win this game.
Fake confidence going into conference play: While this approach will build your team’s confidence, it can also be ‘fake confidence’ as there are not many true challenges to test your squad. This is happening in real time with Kim Mulkey’s LSU Tiger squad.
I will argue that this approach also leads to some really dull games (see: Notre Dame’s lopsided win over Bellermine). We have seen a lot of this season as referenced in previous posts.
The Case Study: Duke vs. LSU
So, let’s look at two contrasting women’s teams for a moment: LSU and Duke because they contrast these philosophies but also played each other during the non conference schedule.
Duke Blue Devils (10-6, 5-0 ACC / NET: 24 / SOS: 4 / Non-Con SOS: 5):
Kara Lawson takes the ‘Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime’ approach to scheduling. She has a young team, anchored by sophomore phenom forward Toby Fournier, who excelled more than expected last season by taking home the ACC championship, literally from a Notre Dame team who dominated the conference for most of the the season. This season, she wanted to take her team up a level too, not to just repeat as conference champs, but go for Final Four glory. As a result she scheduled the 5th hardest non-con schedule, taking quite a few lumps along that way. They entered ACC play at 5-6 with losses to #2 South Carolina, #3 UCLA, #5 LSU and #16 Baylor. Meanwhile, when stopping for dessert, they got the sugar rush blowouts over Holy Cross, Norfolk State and South Dakota State.
It was a strange up and down year so far for the Blue Devils, but are so far 5-0 in ACC play; including a 51pt blowout win over lowly 4-12 Boston College, followed with a strong confident 14pt win over #18 Notre Dame. Following the win over the Irish, Fournier said in the interview that Coach Lawson designed the schedule for these moments.
LSU: (15-2, 1-2 SEC / NET: 5 / SOS: 214 / Non-Con SOS: 339)
In contrast is LSU, who rode their #339-ranked non-con schedule (out of 363) through many blowout wins over schools like Houston Christian (108-55), SE Louisiana (115-26), Alcorn State (112-49), Alabama State (109-41) and UT Arlington (110-45) to name a few. They entered SEC play 14-0, scoring over 100 in 11 of the 14 wins.
Their only real challenge in non-con was at Duke on 12/4 (thanks to the mandatory ACC/SEC Challenge) where they did win convincingly 93-77.
But, the SEC is a different beast. The 'Embuscade of Baton Rouge' fell into an ambush of their own making, getting pounced by #11 Kentucky and #12 Vanderbilt. It was the game against Vandy that showed the world that Mikayla Blakes is worth the watch, but also why Duke’s coach Kara Lawson gave her considerable more playing time than LSU’s Flau’jae Johnson during the summer’s Americup when coaching them for Team USA. Lawson clearly saw something only a few of us had up to this point.
This led to LSU coach Kim Mulkey getting ambushed herself in the post-game presser about her scheduling philosophy.
Do I think LSU will be ok, yeah. They are talented and well coached. Do I think they are a premier team in the SEC, no. Not with Kentucky, Vandy, South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Tennessee are around the corner. This schedule did not prepare them for this and they will blow a few flats on the road to the Final Four.
That said, as both Mulkey and Lawson have shown, it’s not just how you schedule, but it’s how you coach it. And, that is why they play the games. As conference play continues, keep an eye on those teams who were challenged and who were not. My eye test has shown me that those who were not only tested, but who passed those tests, usually go far come bracket time. Those are your office pool picks.
…if we’d have played anything tougher, we might be sitting here with a lot of losses.
LSU head coach Kim Mulkey, regarding her non-conference schedule during the postgame presser at Vanderbilt.
The Infoulable!
Tracking the remaining teams who have yet to commit the ultimate sin... losing.
No movement in The Infoulable circle this week
MBB: All teams made it to the other side…even lil Miami (twice).
#1 Arizona Wildcats (15-0 overall, 2-0 Big XII):
✅ Wednesday: Arizona 101 - Utah 76: Two Wildcats enter, only one exits.
Next: Saturday 1/10 vs. TCU (4p, ESPN)
#2 Michigan Wolverines (14-0 overall, 4-0 B1G):
✅ Tuesday: Michigan 74 - Penn State 72: The Wolverines survive a scare.
Next: Saturday 1/10 at Wisconsin (1p, CBS)
#3 Iowa State Cyclones (15-0 overall, 2-0 Big XII):
✅ Wednesday: Iowa State 70 - Baylor 60
Next: Saturday 1/10 at Oklahoma State (4p, ESPN2)
#11 Vanderbilt Commodores (15-0 overall, 2-0 SEC):
✅ Wednesday: Vandy 96 - Alabama 90:
Next: Saturday 1/10 vs. LSU (1p, SEC)
#13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (15-0 overall, 4-0 B1G):
✅ Monday: Nebraska 72 - THEE Ohio State 69
Next: Mon 1/12 at Indiana (Noon, BTN)
NR…but getting votes - Miami of Ohio! (17-0 overall, 5-0 MAC!):
✅ Tuesday: Miami 87 - Western Michigan 76
✅ Friday: Miami 87 - Toledo 73
Next: Tuesday 1/17 vs. Central Michigan (7p, ESPN+)
WBB: Only 4 teams remain with Vandy still undefeated in both Men’s and Women’s.
#1 UConn Huskies (16-0 overall, 7-0 Big East):
✅ Wednesday: UConn 88 - St. John’s 43
Next: Sunday vs. Creighton (2p, TruTv)
#2 Texas Longhorns (18-0 overall, 3-0 SEC):
✅ Thursday: Texas 97 - Auburn 36
Next: Sunday 1/11 vs. #12 LSU (3p, ESPN)
#7 Vanderbilt Commodores (15-0 overall, 1-0 SEC):
✅ Thursday: Vandy 99 - Missou 68
Next: Sunday 1/11 at Texas A&M (3p, SEC)
#17 Texas Tech Lady Raiders (17-0 overall, 4-0 Big XII):
✅ West Virginia: Texas Tech 71 - Arizona 66
Next: Saturday 1/10 at Cincinnati (2p, ESPN+)
We Got Next: Games to watch this weekend! (all times EST)
Conference Play is flying high! Many Unfoulables in action as well.
MBB:
Saturday - Noon: #21 Tennessee / Florida (ESPN)
Saturday - 1p: LSU / #11 Vanderbilt (SEC) Infoulable Watch!
Saturday - 1p: Wisconsin / #2 Michigan (CBS) Could Michigan go all the way?
Saturday - 2p: #24 SMU / #6 Duke (ESPN)
Sunday - Noon: #16 Illinois / #19 Iowa
WBB:
Saturday - 2p: Cincinnati / #17 Texas Tech (ESPN+) Cinci took down ISU, can they knock off another of the Infoulable?
Sunday - Noon: #22 North Carolina / Notre Dame (ESPN) Both in need of a big win.
Sunday - 3p: #2 Texas / #12 LSU (ESPN)
Sunday - 3p: #7 Vanderbilt / #Texas A&M (ESPN+)
Sunday - 3p: #5 Oklahoma / #6 Kentucky (SEC)
Sunday - 5p: #19 Ohio State / #5 Maryland (Peacock)
Five Touches: Passing around the sports world
Go Violets! Don’t look now, but D3 defending champ NYU women’s basketball team is currently riding a 73-game win streak! This includes two back-to-back championships. Head coach Meg Barber has the Violets playing on a different level.
Geaux Rebelles!! Did you know that LSU’s new football coach (and former Ole Miss coach) Lane Kiffin worked in his new contract to get paid for Ole’ Miss’s playoff wins? Kiffin requested of his new bosses, that he finish the Rebels’ season for their historic playoff run. LSU said no. So, he worked it into his contract to get his bonuses from them. C’est génial!
WNBA Players Association “ain’t playin” around! The union has officially changed their Instagram profile pic to an hourglass. Wow.
Every Point Counts: We haven’t even gotten to a talk about the new Top-25 where the #1 Arizona Wildcats literally got one more first place point in the Top-25 voting to keep them at the top over #2 Michigan. The Russian judge still picked Moscow State, which hasn’t come close to charting.
Catfight In Houston: Lastly, we end on an old fashioned ball brawl this week between the Houston Cougars and the K-State Wildcats. But, it was the women’s game. Four players were ejected from the game with 6mins to go in the game. K-State took the win in the battle of the mediocres.
Final Seconds!
Ok, that is it for this week’s Higher Post. Go enjoy the games !
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Always live One Shining Moment at a time. Never be boring.