Weekly Reflection: Wow, are coaches reading this?
...feels like a lot of teams just wanted to prove me wrong! (as they should!)
Greetings, Congregation!
Well, I didn’t see this coming. Sometimes I get to say “I told you so.” other times, I am so far off. That is the thing with analyzing and prediction games, you only go with what you see, which is why the expression “that’s why they play the games” really means something.
Honestly, the times I have see analysts say ‘this could the greatest team ever’ and then lose on the third Thursday of March, or ‘they might go undefeated’ and then lose the next game, is too high to count.
That is why I don’t care much for predictions. With the exception of The Godfather himself, Joe Lunardi, who’s job is not to guess winners or losers, but how the committee would fair if the season ended today, most of those predictions are garbage. Just fun to keep you entertained.
That said, if you are in this game, you can’t help but make a few. And this week was a doozy for me. Places I was wrong:
LSU is not an elite SEC team: Well, they certainly showed me taking down #2 Texas was impressive. As stated in Friday’s Higher Post:
Do I think LSU will be ok, yeah. They are talented and well coached. Do I think they are a premier team in the SEC, no. Not with Kentucky, Vandy, South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Tennessee are around the corner. This schedule did not prepare them for this and they will blow a few flats on the road to the Final Four.
Now, I still stand by them blowing a few flats because SEC season is long and rough, but they might be more of the nail in everyone else’s tires.
Michigan won’t have a real test until Michigan State: I mean, the Wolverines have been blowing out Top-10 teams. Now, I didn’t expect them to go undefeated to a championship. Not even to the Dance. The B1G is too good for that. But, I didn’t see Wisconsin being the one to get Michigan to commit the ultimate sin of losing. As I said in Jan 3’s Higher Post:
Numbers say that they won’t have a real test until visiting Lansing on 1/30. The eye test agrees.
This is the joy of conference play. Coaches know each other. There is a lot of video to scout. To be fair, we should have seen this coming when Michigan struggled at Penn State for a 2pt win. The fuse was getting short. Wisconsin badgered the Wolverines like a good conference foe. Congrats to them! Now we see how they react as they face Washington on Wednesday.
Hannah Hidalgo is not that tired: Well, I’m just throwing this out there for good measure. In the Duke game, she was tired, but this concerned me because I had never seen that in Hannah before. In last week’s Weekly Reflection, I stated:
Hannah looks tired. Visibly tired. Like I have never seen before …[ ]… She might just be getting worn out. The timing is not ideal as ACC play has begun. Don’t tell me that opposing coaches are not telling their teams to make her run around .. a lot.
#23 North Carolina marched in to South Bend on Sunday and were treated to all the lucky charms. Hannah Hidalgo led with the usual 31 pts, with 7 steals. Cassandre Prosper also got 17 pts of her own to go with 14 rebounds. On the night where the Irish celebrated the 25th anniversary of the 2001 National Championship (featuring one Niele Ivey) the team took control of the floor while the Tar Heels stuck to it.
Maybe Hannah needed a few days off. Or maybe she just needed to fuel up on the BC Buffet as the Eagles came to town for the annual turkey shoot. Trust me, when you see Boston College on the menu, your stomach growls.
In Case You Didn’t Witness:
Basically, here is a quick review of the weekend events in case you missed it.
MBB: Wisconsin 91 - #2 Michigan: Wisconsin ‘badgers’ the Wolverines to their first loss. The first of the #2's to go down was on the men’s side as the Badgers of Wisconsin pestered the undefeated Wolverines, clawing their way back from 17 point deficit thanks to 48 total points from John Blackwell (26pts) and Nick Boyd (22). The game was not without controversy as Michigan’s Aday Mara made a game-tying basket with 35.2 secs left, only to have it called off for basket interference. Video review confirmed the call in the end.
WBB: #12 LSU 70 - #2 Texas 65: I wonder if Kim Mulkey read Saturday’s Higher Post. Heyyyyy… It was a bad weekend for teams ranked second, as one day after #2 Michigan lost (see above) #12 LSU took down conference foe and undefeated #2 Texas. Now, I don’t know for a fact that LSU’s coach Kim Mulkey read Friday’s ‘Higher Post’ but if she did, you’re welcome for the motivation. Clearly I was wrong about LSU’s non-con schedule having the effect it did on conference play. Or maybe I should have just picked a different example because…
WBB: West Virginia 83 - #11 Iowa State 70: What was I just saying about non-conference strength of schedules? The Cyclones of Ames tore through their non-conference schedule and entered Big XII play with the same gusty velocity with two wins over teams on the bottom of the standings. However, the Cyclones are not playing Kansas anymore dropping 3 straight over #22 Baylor, Cincinnati and West Virginia. Ok, so I was wrong about LSU, but ISU’s non-con schedule is ranked much higher than LSU’s at 301. ISU has plenty of time to right the ship, but it does not get much easier in the Big XII from here.
MBB: It's a fun weekend to be from Auburn. There is a thing about sports, especially for fans of teams with massive rivals. Sox/Yanks. Duke/UNC, THEE Ohio State/Michigan, you know the deal. It does not get any bigger than Auburn/Alabama. This rivalry runs so deep, people have done time for their passionate shortcomings.
Well, this weekend Auburn fans were treated to the ‘Pearl’ of an upset doubleheader as the Tigers beat #15 Arkansas at home, but were also treated to seeing #13 Alabama drop one on their floor to unranked Texas. Some will tell you that second one is even more sweet.
The Infoulable!
Tracking the remaining teams who have yet to commit the ultimate sin...of losing.
MBB: I didn’t see Michigan going down first. Lil Miami still going!
#1 Arizona Wildcats (15-0 overall, 2-0 Big XII):
✅ Saturday: Arizona 86 - TCU 73
Next: Weds 1/14 vs. Arizona State (10:30p, FS1)
#2 Michigan Wolverines (13-1 overall, 3-1 B1G):
❌ Saturday: Wisconsin 91 - Michigan 88
#3 Iowa State Cyclones (16-0 overall, 3-0 Big XII):
✅ Saturday: Iowa State 83 - Oklahoma State 71
Next: Tuesday 1/13 at Kansas (9p, ESPN)
#11 Vanderbilt Commodores (16-0 overall, 3-0 SEC):
✅ Saturday: Vandy 84 - LSU 73
Next: Weds 1/14 vs. Texas (9p, ESPN2)
#13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (16-0 overall, 5-0 B1G):
✅ Saturday: Nebraska 83 - Indiana 77
Next: Tuesday 1/13 vs. Oregon (9p, BTN)
NR…but getting votes - Miami of Ohio! (17-0 overall, 5-0 MAC!):
✅ Saturday: Miami 87 - Toledo 73
Next: Tues 1/13 vs. Central Michigan (7p, ESPN+)
WBB: …and then there were 3.
#1 UConn Huskies (16-0 overall, 8-0 Big East):
✅ Sunday: UConn 95 - Seton Hall 54: The Huskies are #1 in both polls, but also the NET ranking and Non-Con SOS. They have done the work. It will be hard to stop them.
Next: Thursday vs. Villanova (7p, FS1)
#2 Texas Longhorns (18-1 overall, 2-1 SEC): Kim Mulkey read this week’s Higher Post and said, “hold my French 75.”
❌ Sunday: LSU 70 - #2 Texas 65
#7 Vanderbilt Commodores (17-0 overall, 4-0 SEC):
✅ Sunday: Vandy 91 - Texas A&M 51: At one point the lead was 40pts which is when Shea Ralph decided to pull the starters.
Next: Thurs 1/15 at Mississippi State (6:30p, SECNet)
#21 Texas Tech Lady Raiders (18-0 overall, 5-0 Big XII):
✅ Sunday: Texas Tech 71 - Cincinnati 60
Next: Tuesday 1/13 at West Virginia (7p, ESPN+)
CoB Saturday School!
What did we learn from the weekend that will help us win the office pool?
Commodores Greatest: And, then there was Vanderbilt. The Commodores are the last school to have both their men’s (16-0) and women’s (17-0) teams still undefeated. It’s an amazing accomplishment since it’s not easy like a Sunday morning to get this far in the season without a blemish on the record. But to having both programs there is amazing. Then realizing its Vandy makes it all the more special, since the Nashville school is more known for being the GPA of the SEC and not the ones bringing titles home. Congrats to both squads! Lots of season left, but an amazing feat regardless.
Upsets! Get Your Upsets here!
As expected in conference play, there were plenty of them this weekend - mostly in women’s game.
While the Men’s side saw Wisconsin over Michigan, we also witnessed:
Texas over #13 Alabama
Auburn over #15 Arkansas
Florida over #21 Tennessee
West Virginia over #22 Kansas
Just showing that nothing is safe in the SEC. But it also means that all the SEC teams are meeting adversity early in conference play which is great prep for March.
On the women’s side, we saw:
Notre Dame over #23 North Carolina
#12 LSU over #2 Texas
West Virginia over #11 Iowa State
Minnesota over #21 USC
Purdue over #23 Washington
A good cross section of conferences there which just means more fun for UConn and Vandy who just keep on rolling!
We Got Next: Games to watch this week! (all times EST)
Lots of fun action this week, including all the Infoulables. See key games below:
WBB:
Thursday - 6p: #10 Louisville at Notre Dame (ACCN)
Thursday - 7p: #2 Texas at #3 South Carolina (ESPN2)
Thursday - 7p: Illinois at #9 Michigan (Peacock)
Thursday - 7p: #25 Nebraska at #15 Michigan State (BTN)
Thursday - 9p: #8 Maryland at #21 USC (Peacock)
MBB:
Tuesday - 7p: #23 Virginia at #20 Louisville (ESPN2)
Tuesday - 9p: #3 Iowa State at #22 Kansas (ESPN)
Wednesday - 9p: #19 Iowa at #5 Purdue (BTN)
Wednesday - 9p: #17 North Carolina at Stanford (ACCN)
Final Seconds
Ok, friends! The Jumbotron is off for now!
62 days until Selection Sunday (March 15)
69 days until First Round (March 19-20)
82 days until Final Four (April 4)
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Always live One Shining Moment at a time. Never be boring.